IND vs PAK: Rain, Humidity, Dew — 3 Conditions That Could Decide the Toss Strategy

Usually, the India and Pakistan match-up is spoken of as a big contest, but in Colombo it often becomes about the state of the pitch. You can really get something from the pitch, the outfield can become slick, and in the evening the conditions can be a real issue for the bowlers.

As a result, the coin flip here is about more than who bats first; it’s a choice of which will be the more difficult part of the game – a sticky pitch at the beginning, or a slippery ball and fast bowling at the end.

Rain could cost you some overs. Humidity affects your new ball and how you feel. Dew alters the bowling in the second half of the innings, and the fielding. When you add all three of these together, you get a match where getting the toss right could be worth 15 to 25 runs.

Here’s how to understand all three – without making it too complicated – so the toss plan actually suits what the India versus Pakistan match will be like when played under lights.

In detail

Why Colombo shapes the toss

Why Colombo makes the toss seem more important than it is

Premadasa is known for making teams fight for any advantage. Even when the scores are good, the middle overs can slow up if the pitch is holding the ball, and the last five overs can really speed up if the ball gets wet and slides on.

In India versus Pakistan, this matters because both teams base their T20 plans on “phase wins”. India want to be in charge in overs 7–15 and to be able to do what they want at the end of the innings. Pakistan want early wickets, then to limit the runs with spin, then a quick finish.

The conditions decide which phase is easiest to be in control of. The toss is really the captain choosing which problem they’d rather have.

Rain changes both teams’ plans

1) Rain: the overs taker which messes up both plans

Rain doesn’t just lower the number of overs. It changes how teams think about wickets, how they set the pace of an innings, and how certain captains are with their bowlers.

The biggest misunderstanding about rain

People say “rain helps the team batting second”. Sometimes it does. But rain also helps the team that figures out what’s happening better.

If rain is likely, captains are quietly asking themselves two questions:

Toss plan when rain is a risk

If rain looks likely during the match, a lot of captains pick to bowl first. Not because bowling is easier, but because chasing in a game where rain is a threat often gives you one thing: certainty. You know what you have to chase as the breaks happen, and you can make your risk plan around it.

But there’s a problem in India versus Pakistan: if the chase is broken at the wrong time, you can end up in a situation where you’re “behind” even though you think you’re in control. That’s why teams chasing in rain games really try to keep the score going and avoid groups of dots.

If rain looks more likely at the start, batting first can be good because you might get the best of the pitch before it’s changed. Early rain can also delay the start and create a shorter game where batting in the powerplay becomes everything. In that case, a team might prefer to set a score rather than chase a smaller target.

What rain changes in how you play

What rain changes in how you play (even if it doesn’t happen)

The chance of rain changes how much a captain wants “slow overs”. You’ll see:

• More effort to keep the innings going between overs 7–12.
• Less patience with a time to rebuild.
• Bowlers holding back their “best two overs” because they’re afraid of losing them to a cut in the overs.

In India versus Pakistan, that means the middle overs become even more important. If rain is near, teams don’t want to slow down. They want to get runs early and avoid a struggle where one bad over decides everything.

Practical rain rule for captains

Humidity changes the first six overs

2) Humidity: the thing you can’t see that changes the first six overs

Colombo humidity is rarely “mild”. Even when it isn’t raining, the air can feel heavy enough to affect how you hold the ball, how it moves, and how you feel.

Humidity doesn’t make the ball swing. But it raises the chance that the new ball will act in a way you can’t expect – especially if there’s cloud or dampness in the pitch. In the first couple of overs, humidity can make it seem to the batters that the ball is arriving a little late, or is moving in the air a bit more. This is enough to cause:

• Slightly mistimed shots over the infield.
• More balls hitting the edge of the bat when driven.
• A greater need for good timing, instead of simply hitting the ball powerfully.

For Pakistan, this is when a left-arm fast bowler – and aiming at the stumps – can be very effective. For India, this is where being accurate – a good length, the correct bouncer, the ideal slower ball – can make batters play poor shots, without needing to force things.

How humidity eventually harms bowlers

How humidity eventually harms bowlers –

As the match continues, humidity tests how fit the bowlers are. Fast bowlers will sweat a lot, won’t get as good a grip on the ball, and will have less margin for error.

This is important in India against Pakistan, as both teams need skillful bowling at the very end of the innings. Bowling when the match is nearly over is about getting it precisely right, and humidity makes that more difficult.

Fielding will also be affected

Fielding will also be affected:

• The ball will feel more slippery.
• Throwing will be harder.
• There’s a greater chance of misfields, especially on a wet outfield.

This isn’t unimportant. In crucial matches, two misfields can be a difference of ten runs.

How to decide about the toss

How to decide about the toss, considering humidity

The best toss choices are often based on a simple thing: how does the ball feel during the warm-up? If it’s already slippery, bowling second isn’t a good idea.

What captains should expect

What captains should expect from their powerplay bowlers

Games with humidity favour accuracy more than pace. You require:

• A bowler who bowls at the stumps.
• A bowler who controls where batters can hit the ball to the boundary.
• A field arrangement that makes ‘easy singles’ into uncertain ones.

If you’re bowling first: aim to slow the scoring rate down by the fourth over, not the seventh. When batters have become comfortable in the humidity, the ball can start travelling.

Dew is the biggest toss factor

Dew: the late-game benefit – and the biggest factor in the toss

If rain is the main worry, and humidity is simply making things harder, dew is what can change the game – even if the pitch itself hasn’t changed.

Dew makes the ball wet. That’s all. But in Twenty20, a wet ball alters everything:

• Fast bowling slides on.
• Spin bowlers can’t get a hold of the ball.
• Yorkers become full tosses.
• Catches and ground fielding are more difficult.

Because of this, captains frequently want to chase when there’s a lot of dew – it isn’t only luck, it’s what normally happens.

How dew alters the bowlers

How dew alters the bowlers captains choose

When there’s dew, captains will usually:

• Use wristspin less, if the ball isn’t gripping.
• Place their trust in the quicker, flatter bowlers who can bowl fast without needing spin.
• Bowl more pace-off cutters and hard-length balls – because the pitch can still provide bounce even when the ball is wet.

However, dew can also ruin the slower ball if the bowler isn’t able to get their action right. A wet ball can result in full tosses or long hops that are hit for six.

So, bowling at the end of the innings is about who can deal with the wet ball best, rather than who is the best bowler in theory.

How dew alters what batters do

How dew alters what batters do

Chasing teams feel the ball comes onto the bat better. This changes the shots batters attempt. Batters can be confident hitting straight and cutting over point.

It also changes what a good score is. A target that looks okay at 175 can suddenly seem easy if dew turns the 16th–20th overs into overs where boundaries are hit regularly.

In India versus Pakistan, this is where the match can unexpectedly change – because one side is protecting a score that looked good at the toss, but hasn’t understood that conditions have altered what is required.

Toss strategy when dew is likely

Toss strategy when dew is likely

If there’s likely to be a lot of dew, bowling first is usually the best option. You’d rather chase with a wet ball helping you than defend with a wet ball harming your bowlers.

But a pitch that’s been used complicates things. At times the surface is slower to start with, and gets easier later as dew removes some grip. This is what chasing teams want to occur.

If you believe this is likely, the toss is simple: chase, keep wickets, and trust your batters to finish.

When rain and dew conflict

The hard part: when rain and dew seem to want opposing things

This is the real issue in Colombo.

Dew says chase, because defending with a wet ball is hard.

Rain also says chase, because you want to be certain about a revised target. However, rain and the possibility of DLS calculations harming a team chasing can really punish the side that is behind the score needed.